If you don't believe it, I don't need to waste my breath. Many people can only experience one wave of altcoin season every four years. The timing is very clear; on the 14th, it was mentioned that within a week by the 20th, if there are any spikes, one can build positions and hold firmly. The fact is, most targets bottomed out on the 19th, and those with fundamentals have today fully recovered from their declines.
The overall logic remains valid. Ethereum is at the end of its strong momentum and doesn't offer high cost-effectiveness. Some altcoins are showing independent trends, which is a natural selection made after the funds are redistributed. Many coins that have risen the fastest over the past four years only did so in those ten days. The current timing has reached the threshold for acceleration. Using a 10% stop-loss to aim for several times the potential return seems very worthwhile to me. Any fluctuations, guided by the time cycle, will become particularly effective and feedback will be timely, especially at the convergence points of different time cycles.
It’s once again a time when choice outweighs effort. If you grasp this well in the next month or two, the power of compound interest can be terrifying. Regarding how to compound: altcoins generally go through three waves: ① slight upward phase ② pullback and washout with long-short differentiation ③ rapid upward phase. Fast movers like BIO are already in the third phase (leading friends in the channel to a 300% gain), while those moving relatively quickly have completed the second phase and are about to enter the third rapid upward phase, such as Pendle, LDO, and other top-value coins. Those moving more slowly are still in the first phase, like Pepe, Pnut, and other memes. With this in mind, how to rotate and compound should be quite clear.
Indeed, the current market is one of scarce liquidity. As soon as Ethereum rises slightly, altcoins greedily absorb funds. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of Ethereum executing a self-destructive attack to crash the market in order to quickly recoup funds. In a macro and event-driven market that is constantly changing, having a risk management plan is always wise.
The battle begins! The power of cycles is once again evident, with Ethereum (soon) and Bitcoin breaking historical highs today. Historically, after reaching new highs, altcoins tend to perform better; in fact, most people's memories are stuck in the altcoin season from January to May 2021, but they forget that many altcoins in 2020 also consolidated for over 200 days before exploding in the first half of 2021. Just like then, at this moment, as numb traders are immersed in a low atmosphere, taking habits for granted, will the market deliver a heavy blow?
Soros' reflexivity is one of my favorite theories. On April 4, I called for a long position on Twitter, coinciding with the bottom of Bitcoin's quarterly cycle, and then I saw the VIX panic index soar to 60 (a rare occurrence in years), which deepened my judgment.
The future market is actually also easy to navigate. Considering the current situation in the crypto space and some common sense, some trade-offs need to be made: ① In a low liquidity market, buy strong, not weak; ② Initially buy leaders, where funds are first attracted; ③ Don’t think about crossing cycles; most assets will complete their harvest within a month; ④ Play value coins first, then meme coins.
Regarding the timing of entry, after Bitcoin and Ethereum break new highs, most altcoins are taking their first steps, quickly and slightly rising, such as ARB, UNI, and ZK. Some have already entered the second step, starting to build platforms like BIO. Overall, whether there is a significant and smooth trend, around the 20th can be considered a threshold. Therefore, from today until the 20th, a week’s time, if there is a flash crash in altcoins, enter and hold until the beginning of next month.
For those who haven’t entered, the next week will definitely give you an opportunity to get in. Assuming there is an altcoin rally → funds will flow out of Ethereum → Ethereum will flash crash → altcoins will spike, it’s a very simple logic.
Since I have a channel now, the frequency of my tweets has decreased, as feedback is more timely. I will try to communicate in the channel first, but it’s a bit scattered, and then use AI to summarize and post on Twitter.
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