to add a bit more nuance to this, i don’t think l1 tokens r necessarily *bad* investments. i certainly wouldn’t short them. i just can’t convince myself that they r *great* investments.
there’s a universe of thousands of assets to choose from. u can always find a handful of 9/10 assets to own. why agonize over the 7/10s?
i sleep much better knowing that every asset i own has durable moats, operates in exponentially growing spaces, *and* is reasonably priced.
i have a hard time convincing myself to own l1 tokens long term not because the p/e ratios r high, but because they have no moat. without a moat, they become commoditized and can’t capture meaningful value.
- users can bridge from one chain to another easily these days.
- most app devs can move from one chain to another fairly quickly too (aside from a handful of complex smart contracts).
- and it’s never been easier to launch a new chain.
their switching cost of blockchains is nowhere near something like aws.
the only way as far as i can see for chains to strengthen their moat is to verticalize and own the app layer. my perception is chains solana, base, and hyperliquid have come to this conclusion and r actively working on it. and ofc so do the up and coming corp chains like tempo.
its a no brainer to believe in the exponential, but the best expression of this view is to bet on the app layer.
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