Here's a potentially controversial headline for you: I believe that the $0.20 to $0.40 price range is fair for $RON, given its current performance as a business.
Let's do a comparison vs established brands like @Nintendo, @Roblox, etc. One way to do this is to get a company's lifetime user accounts (meaning every user who had ever created an account, including the ones that never played even once) and dividing that number by that company's market cap.
What you'll end up with is a rough "value per user," which tells us how much a company expects to earn from a customer over the course of their lifetime with them.
I believe that @Ronin_Network, @AxieInfinity , and @SkyMavisHQ have now been around long enough to apply a similar kind of math, because their hype-driven days are largely behind them.
In general, the "minimum value per user" for these established gaming brands is somewhere in the $100 to $200 range.
Nintendo seems to be the one with highest market cap relative to its user numbers, but that's because it has a popular hardware business. @EA seems to be on the lower side, but I think that's only because they were acquired by the Saudis just 2 months ago. Meanwhile, @Roblox is leading the pack in terms of downloads and daily actives, although its younger audience tends to imply less revenue.
The table shows how Ronin stacks up against these other brands.
We know that Axie Infinity had a peak of 2.8M monthly actives, and we know that @pixels_online claims it has 10M lifetime users (although some were from before it moved to Ronin). For the purposes of this comparison, we'll be generous and assume that there are 10M lifetime players across all Ronin games, although my pessimistic estimate would be closer to 7M.
With 10M lifetime users, Ronin's $130M market cap initially feels underpriced. Given the other companies' user-values of ~$100, shouldn't it be more like $1B?
I think the basic problem here is that the "$100-200 revenue per user" number is really tough to defend given Ronin's playerbase. After all, how much do you expect the average Pinoy to spend on their web3 games? I'd say the average would be closer to $40. (Heck, most of them actually expect to be PAID to play web3 games, so technically they're cost centers, not revenue generators.)
To recap:
Our OPTIMISTIC analysis indicates 10M Ronin users multiplied by a $100 lifetime value per user, implying a $1B market cap and a $1.00 token price.
Our PESSIMISTIC analysis indicates 7M Ronin users multiplied by a $40 lifetime value per user, implying a $280M market cap and a $0.28 token price.
So while it fluctuates within the $0.20 to $1.00 range, I think $RON is fairly priced, and I would only buy back in if it dropped to $0.10 ... or there was a significant increase in their user numbers.
A $RON price above $1.00 feels like we are back in speculative hype territory.
#cryptoph

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