Historically betting agaist Qiao is a bad idea, but I'd take the other side on this one.
I'm very bullish on L1s from here bc the barriers to entry are higher than ever and I see massive moats.
The network effects and lindy in particular are real - just look at where activity is congregating around.
Ethereum in particular is a great example of how strong network effects are.
The network basically tried to fire all of their customers and users (we don't like DeFi! go to L2s don't use mainchain) and yet activity STILL stayed on L1.
I think people drastically underestimate how sticky use cases are to individual chains, and user LTVs are far higher than most analysts give credit for.
However, the market won't value L1s like this until there's a simple model for translating these network effects into revenue, this is what's missing today.
And while corpo chains are trying to vertically integrate in the short term, long term the offerings of L1s aren't "core" to corpos and they will outsource them.
i have a hard time convincing myself to own l1 tokens long term not because the p/e ratios r high, but because they have no moat. without a moat, they become commoditized and can’t capture meaningful value.
- users can bridge from one chain to another easily these days.
- most app devs can move from one chain to another fairly quickly too (aside from a handful of complex smart contracts).
- and it’s never been easier to launch a new chain.
their switching cost of blockchains is nowhere near something like aws.
the only way as far as i can see for chains to strengthen their moat is to verticalize and own the app layer. my perception is chains solana, base, and hyperliquid have come to this conclusion and r actively working on it. and ofc so do the up and coming corp chains like tempo.
its a no brainer to believe in the exponential, but the best expression of this view is to bet on the app layer.
that said, Chainlink and Layer Zero look very interesting here
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